Billions of Meals at Risk Due to Iran War, Warns Fertilizer Giant
May 1, 2026 | Sources: BBC News, Reuters
The CEO of Yara International, one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers, issued a stark warning on May 1 that the Iran conflict’s disruption to global fertilizer supplies could significantly reduce crop yields worldwide, driving up food prices and putting billions of meals at risk.
The Core Warning
Yara is one of the world’s largest nitrogen fertilizer producers. Its CEO stated in an interview that the Iran conflict has caused “severe disruption” to the global fertilizer supply chain. The company has significant fertilizer production and transportation facilities in and around Iran, and the war’s port blockades and shipping disruptions have directly impacted fertilizer production and exports.
“We are witnessing the brewing of a potential global food crisis,” the Yara CEO said. “Fertilizer is the foundational input for modern agricultural production. Without adequate fertilizer supplies, global yields of major food crops will drop significantly, and this will directly push up food prices.”
Fertilizer and Food Security
Fertilizers — particularly nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers — are the core pillars of the global food production system. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that fertilizers contribute more than 50% to global food production. A reduction in fertilizer supply will directly lead to crop yield declines.
Yara warned that the upcoming Northern Hemisphere spring planting season is facing a severe fertilizer shortfall. If fertilizer supplies cannot be restored in time, yields of major food crops such as wheat, corn, and rice could fall by 5%-15%.
“This means the world could face a shortfall of billions of additional meals,” Yara stated. “The most severely affected will be developing countries already facing food insecurity.”
Iran War’s Impact on Supply Chains
The Iran war has now lasted more than 60 days. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports has severely disrupted shipping in the Persian Gulf region. Iran is an important fertilizer producer and exporter globally, and its phosphate resources and fertilizer production capacity hold significant importance for the global market.
Additionally, the war has led to increased volatility in energy prices. Fertilizer production is heavily dependent on energy inputs such as natural gas, and rising energy costs have further pushed up fertilizer production costs. Global nitrogen fertilizer prices have already risen more than 30% in recent weeks.
Global Response
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has called on governments to take measures ensuring the畅通 of fertilizer supply chains. The FAO Director-General said: “Food security is at the core of global security. Any conflict that impacts fertilizer production and transportation can have cascading effects that ultimately affect the world’s most vulnerable populations.”
Multiple countries have begun emergency agricultural policy adjustments, including drawing on strategic fertilizer reserves, encouraging farmers to reduce fertilizer usage, and seeking alternative fertilizer sources. However, analysts warn that these measures cannot fill the massive supply shortfall in the short term.
Market Outlook
Analysts predict that if the Iran war continues, global fertilizer prices could continue to climb, driving significant increases in global food prices in the second half of 2026. For an already inflation-stressed global economy, this would add further strain.