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OPEC+ convened on May 3 for its first ministerial meeting since the United Arab Emirates’ surprise withdrawal from the oil cartel, in what analysts see as a critical test of the alliance’s cohesion amid unprecedented global energy market volatility.
The UAE announced its exit from OPEC+ earlier this week, sending shockwaves through oil markets. As the cartel’s third-largest producer, the UAE’s departure removes a key player from the global supply coordination mechanism. The move is widely viewed as reflecting deep-seated disagreements among producers over output quotas and long-term strategy.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, OPEC+ is planning to raise production quotas at this meeting despite the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal has drawn skepticism from market observers: with global energy supply already under severe strain from the Iran crisis, the wisdom of a production increase is being debated.
CNBC reports that some OPEC+ members argue that pre-announcing a production hike — even while Hormuz passage remains restricted — could signal “adequate supply” to markets and help cap further oil price surges. Critics, however, warn the move could be interpreted as evidence of internal disunity, further eroding market confidence.
International oil prices have continued climbing due to the Iran conflict and Hormuz Strait crisis, with Brent crude breaching $125 per barrel. Global stock markets remain volatile as investors closely watch OPEC+ decisions for their broader impact on energy geopolitics.
The outcome of this meeting will directly shape global oil supply expectations for the coming months, with ripple effects on US inflation pressures, European energy security, and the economic outlook for emerging market nations.