UAE Exit from OPEC: How It Could Reshape Global Oil Markets in Five Charts
April 29, 2026 — The United Arab Emirates’ plan to leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and strike out alone is being viewed as a massive blow to the organisation, with one analyst describing it as “the beginning of the end of OPEC.”
The announcement comes at a time of significant volatility in the oil market, with the US-Israel conflict with Iran triggering the biggest loss of oil supply on record, according to the World Bank.
What Is OPEC?
OPEC was formed in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela to defend the interests of major oil exporters by coordinating production to ensure steady revenue for its members.
In addition to its five founding members, OPEC currently includes Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, and the Republic of the Congo. In 2016, when oil prices were particularly low, OPEC joined forces with 10 other oil producers, including Russia, to create the wider OPEC+ alliance.
How Does OPEC Influence Oil Prices?
OPEC aims to influence the global price of oil by agreeing how much its members sell. When they increase production, the goal is to lower prices by ensuring ample supply; when they cut production, the aim is to keep prices high when demand is lower.
In October 1973, Arab oil producers placed an embargo on countries led by the US, causing oil prices to more than double and triggering fuel rationing. More recently, during the coronavirus pandemic, OPEC+ slashed production to boost prices.
UAE Is OPEC’s Third-Biggest Oil Exporter
Based on 2025 data, the UAE exports approximately 2.88 million barrels of crude oil per day, trailing only Saudi Arabia (6.43 million bpd) and Iraq (3.26 million bpd). The UAE’s departure will directly reduce OPEC’s ability to control supply in the global market.
OPEC’s Enforcement Challenges
Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, notes that OPEC’s influence on oil prices has historically been “variable” because individual members “often do not actually respect the commitment” — either overproducing to gain greater market share or underproducing due to technical difficulties. He cited instances of Kazakhstan and the UAE itself exceeding agreed production levels.
The UAE’s exit could trigger a chain reaction, further weakening OPEC+’s coordination ability and market influence at a time when global oil markets are already under severe stress.
Source: BBC News