BBC reports that the disruption to this strategic waterway is severely impacting global energy transportation. The strait handles roughly 20% of global LNG trade and vast quantities of crude oil, and its closure has directly pushed up Brent and WTI crude prices.

Market analysts warn that if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist, energy prices could climb further, exacerbating global inflationary pressures. The situation is particularly acute for countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil imports.

The Trump administration has previously stated it does not rule out military action to reopen the strait. While intended to pressure Iran, this stance has also heightened market fears of conflict escalation. Investors are closely monitoring every development.

Energy industry executives note that despite current tensions, global oil supply chains are working to identify alternative transport routes. However, alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz are costly and have limited capacity, unable to fully close the gap.

Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after Brent crude surged nearly 6% the previous day. Traders are closely assessing the latest developments in the Middle East, including U.S. strikes on Iranian fast boats, Iran’s attack on a UAE oil facility, and the latest ceasefire negotiations.

According to CNBC, oil gave back some of Monday’s sharp gains in Tuesday’s trading. The previous day’s spike was driven by the dramatic escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing international oil prices to their largest single-day gain in months.

Shipping company Maersk confirmed that one of its U.S.-flagged commercial vessels successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military escort. This news somewhat eased market concerns about potential disruption to global crude shipping.

However, the overall situation remains highly uncertain. U.S. President Trump threatened to blow Iran off the face of the earth if it attacks U.S. vessels, further fueling market anxiety about the safety of passage through the strait.

Al Jazeera reported that Brent crude rose nearly 6% in the previous trading session, reflecting investor panic about the potential disruption of the world’s most important oil shipping corridor. The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 21 million barrels of oil per day, representing about one-third of global seaborne oil supply.

Market analysts note that despite Tuesday’s pullback, volatility will remain elevated until the situation clarifies. If ceasefire negotiations progress, oil prices could fall sharply; conversely, if conflict continues to escalate, prices could break through previous key resistance levels.

Shares of major energy companies showed divergence in Tuesday’s trading: upstream exploration and production companies benefited from high oil price expectations, while refining and transportation firms faced pressure from rising costs and supply chain uncertainty.

Source: CNBC, Al Jazeera

Multiple chief executives of major international oil companies have issued stark warnings at recent industry conferences, stating that persistent geopolitical crises and structural tensions in global energy supply chains are pushing markets toward a “cliff’s edge,” with potentially devastating consequences if key shipping routes are disrupted.

Hormuz Strait Crisis Heightens Supply Concerns

The core of the warnings centers on the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Since the escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States, security risks in the region have continued to mount. While both sides have engaged in discussions regarding the “termination” of the conflict, the actual safety of passage through the strait remains unsecured.

“We are at an extremely fragile moment,” said one senior executive at a major international energy company, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Any further shock to the supply chain could trigger a cascading effect.”

Global Stockpiles at Dangerous Lows

Analytical data shows that global strategic petroleum reserves and commercial inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in years. In the United States, gasoline prices continue to climb, with the national average surpassing $4.30 per gallon in some regions. European energy prices are similarly under pressure, with the Bank of England recently holding interest rates steady due to energy-driven inflation concerns.

Oil industry executives note that current market conditions bear similarities to historical crisis periods, but the world’s capacity to buffer against supply shocks is significantly diminished. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously called on member countries to prepare for potential supply disruptions.

Underinvestment Creates Long-Term Vulnerabilities

Beyond the immediate geopolitical risks, oil executives also warned about the long-term problem of underinvestment. In recent years, capital expenditure in traditional oil and gas has fallen significantly under pressure from the global energy transition. This has resulted in new production capacity failing to keep pace with demand growth, particularly in emerging and developing markets.

“We face a paradox: on one hand, the world’s dependence on fossil fuels cannot be eliminated in the short term; on the other, investment in traditional energy continues to decline,” noted another industry leader. “This imbalance will ultimately be paid for by consumers.”

OPEC+ Outlook Uncertain

Meanwhile, the UAE’s earlier decision to withdraw from OPEC has further compounded market uncertainty. As a major oil producer, the UAE’s departure weakens OPEC+’s ability to coordinate supply, making the global oil market’s management mechanisms more fragile.

Market analysts expect energy prices to continue being driven by geopolitical events and supply-side factors in the coming weeks, with volatility likely to increase further.

Source: Bloomberg | Moneycontrol

April 30, 2026 | Sources: BBC News, Al Jazeera

Brent Crude Briefly Tops $126

Oil prices jumped to their highest level since 2022 after a report that the U.S. military is set to brief President Donald Trump on new plans for potential action in the Iran conflict.

According to Axios, U.S. Central Command has prepared a plan for a wave of “short and powerful” strikes on Iran to try to break the deadlock in negotiations with Tehran.

Brent crude rose by almost 7% to more than $126.31 a barrel at one point, the highest since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The price then fell back sharply to around $114, while the more active July contract traded at approximately $110 per barrel.

Naveen Das, senior oil analyst at Kpler, said the sharp swing in oil prices was partly due to the June delivery Brent futures contract expiring on Thursday.

Strait of Hormuz Remains Effectively Closed

Energy prices have been rising throughout the week as peace talks appear to have stalled, with the Strait of Hormuz waterway still effectively closed. About 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) usually passes through the strait, and the conflict has sent global energy prices soaring.

The U.S. said it would blockade Iranian ports for as long as Tehran continues to threaten vessels attempting to use the Strait of Hormuz, severely disrupting global energy shipments. Iran retaliated against U.S.-Israeli airstrikes by threatening to attack ships in the waterway.

New Military Plan Details

The Axios report cited anonymous sources saying the proposed wave of strikes would likely include infrastructure targets. Another plan focuses on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it for commercial shipping, reportedly potentially requiring ground troops.

Meanwhile, a statement attributed to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamanei said that Tehran would secure the Strait of Hormuz and eliminate “the enemy’s abuses of the waterway.” Khamanei’s statement also indicated that a “new chapter” for the region had been taking shape since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran on February 28.

Global Economic Impact

The UK government has warned that people could face higher energy, food, and flight ticket prices as a result of the war. According to the RAC motoring group, petrol in the UK currently averages 157p per litre, 24p higher than before the war. Diesel stands at 188.5p per litre, up 46p from pre-war levels.

Some airlines have already begun raising fares or cutting flights. Fertilizer prices have also started climbing, which could have a knock-on effect on food prices.

Source: BBC News, Al Jazeera

Oil prices surged to their highest level since 2022 on Thursday after reports that the US military is set to brief President Donald Trump on new plans for potential military action against Iran.

Brent crude rose by almost 7% to more than $126 (£94) a barrel at one point, before falling back. According to Axios, US Central Command has prepared a plan for a wave of “short and powerful” strikes on Iran to try to break the deadlock in negotiations with Tehran. The BBC has contacted US Central Command and the White House for comment.

Energy prices have been rising this week as peace talks appear to have stalled, with the key Strait of Hormuz waterway still effectively closed. About 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) usually passes through the strait, and the conflict has sent global energy prices soaring.

Brent crude touched $126.31 a barrel earlier on Thursday, the highest since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, the price then fell back sharply later in the day to around $114.

The sharp swing in oil prices was partly attributed to futures contract deadlines. Naveen Das, senior oil analyst at Kpler, said the Brent futures contract for June delivery expired on Thursday, contributing to the drop. The more active July contract was trading lower at around $110 a barrel.

Crude oil is a key ingredient in petrol and diesel, and the jump in costs since the start of the Iran war has pushed up pump prices for motorists.

In the UK, petrol currently costs an average of 157p a litre, according to motoring group RAC — 24p higher than before the war began. Diesel stands at 188.5p a litre, up 46p compared with its pre-war price.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said that while petrol prices at the pump have fallen, “our analysis of wholesale costs shows petrol is now more expensive for retailers to buy than at any time since the war began.” However, diesel, which has come down by 3p a litre, “is currently well below its highest wholesale price since the start of the conflict, so should fall further.”

But the potential impact extends far beyond fuel prices. The UK government has warned that people could face higher energy, food, and flight ticket prices as a result of the war. Some airlines have already started raising fares or reducing flights. Fertiliser prices have also begun increasing, which could have a knock-on effect on food prices.

The Axios report cited anonymous sources saying the proposed wave of strikes would likely include infrastructure targets. Another plan focused on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz so it can be reopened for commercial shipping — a move that could involve troops on the ground.

Meanwhile, a statement attributed to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamanei said that Tehran would secure the Strait of Hormuz and eliminate “the enemy’s abuses of the waterway.” Khamanei’s statement also said a “new chapter” for the region had been taking shape since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran on 28 February.

The US said it would blockade Iranian ports for as long as Tehran continues to threaten vessels trying to use the Strait of Hormuz, severely disrupting global energy shipments. Iran has retaliated against US-Israeli airstrikes by threatening to attack ships in the waterway.

Source: BBC News, Axios