Federal Reserve Expected to Launch First Rate Hike in Three Years This Week, Pressuring Global Bond Markets
Market expectations for the September FOMC meeting are highly aligned, with consensus that the Federal Reserve will launch its first rate hike since 2023 to address inflation pressure that has not fully receded and a still resilient job market. This decision will formally end a three-year rate-cutting cycle, marking a new tightening phase in the global monetary policy environment, with chain effects on global bond yields, dollar exchange rate trends, and emerging market capital flows. Against the backdrop of Fed policy pivot and synchronized global bond yield increases, refinancing costs and debt sustainability for major global borrowers in the second half of 2026 will enter a new period of stress testing.