Economy

Core Summary Trade negotiations between the United States and Canada collapsed over the weekend, prompting leaders from both countries to announce 50% tariffs on each other’s products. The sudden escalation has thrown North American small businesses into crisis, with many cross-border traders warning of devastating impacts. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged levies starting September 8 on US steel, dairy, appliances, and electronics, while President Trump’s tariffs took effect Saturday, hitting Canadian wine, dairy, cement, clothing, and hockey equipment. ...

Core Summary The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 14 that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% in June, marking the largest monthly decline since 2020. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, while core CPI held at 2.6%. The data came in well below expectations, significantly reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its late-July meeting. Details According to the latest data, the overall CPI posted a rare month-over-month decline, driven primarily by falling gasoline prices. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, remained at 2.6% year-over-year, slightly above the Fed’s 2% target but with clearly moderating momentum. ...

Core Summary A landmark US housing bill has officially become law despite President Trump’s attempts to block it. The legislation aims to reduce housing costs and increase supply, representing the most significant housing policy reform in years. The president had wanted voter ID legislation passed before the housing bill, but Congress ultimately prioritized the housing measure. Event Details According to BBC and multiple US media reports, the housing bill gained bipartisan support in Congress before officially taking effect. The bill’s core provisions include: increased federal housing subsidies, streamlined housing construction approval processes, expanded support for first-time homebuyers, and incentives for local governments to relax zoning restrictions to increase housing supply. ...

Core Summary On the 10th anniversary of the UK Brexit referendum, multiple media outlets published retrospective analyses. Economists point out that Brexit has significantly hampered UK economic growth over the past decade. Event Details According to The New York Times, UK economic growth has clearly slowed since the 2016 referendum. Trade volume with the EU has fallen approximately 15 percent compared to pre-Brexit levels. Panoramic Analysis The Brexit decade review offers important lessons for all economies facing major policy shifts. The UK case demonstrates that the costs of leaving a large economic union far exceeded expectations during the referendum. ...

Fed’s First Inflation Report Under Chair Warsh Shows Prices Near 3-Year High The Federal Reserve’s first inflation report under new Chair Kevin Warsh reveals U.S. consumer price growth approaching its highest level in nearly three years, prompting market reassessment of monetary policy direction. Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices rose 3.1% year-over-year, up 0.3 percentage points from the prior month — the fastest pace since September 2023. Energy price volatility was a primary driver, with international oil prices surging over recent months due to ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, pushing up transportation and manufacturing costs. ...

China reported record-high export and import figures for April, with the trade surplus widening further, signaling economic resilience despite tariff headwinds.

UK thirty-year government bond yields rose to five point seven six percent, the highest since 1998. Rising fuel prices and political stability concerns are pushing up borrowing costs, squeezing Chancellor Rachel Reeves fiscal headroom.

US gasoline prices rose more than 30 cents per gallon in the past week, with the Strait of Hormuz closure and Iran conflict pushing energy costs higher

Bloomberg analysis suggests the upcoming US jobs report is expected to show continued labor market resilience despite the uncertainty caused by the Iran war.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at its April meeting as Iran-related risks drive inflation concerns and the potential Powell-to-Warsh transition adds uncertainty.