Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said on October 16 that artificial intelligence is delivering a structural shock to the US economy, offering both the prospect of a productivity jump and the risk of new uncertainty for inflation and the labor market. He pledged to use monetary policy tools to contain inflation and signaled that future rate decisions will pay closer attention to how AI transmits through prices and the labor market.

US wholesale inflation climbed to its highest level since 2022 in September, according to Labor Department data released on October 15, with the producer price index rising far more than markets expected. Treasury yields and the dollar jumped after the print, US equity futures fell, and bets on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates again this year split sharply. Sticky services inflation combined with energy price volatility has widened the divide inside the Fed over the path of disinflation, exposing global asset prices and cross-border capital flows to a fresh round of volatility.

美国劳工部最新公布的9月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.7%，高于市场普遍预期。数据公布后比特币迅速跌破8.2万美元整数关口，一度下探约8.1万美元附近，市场对美联储紧缩预期显著升温，加密资产整体承压。事件反映出在通胀粘性与利率路径不确定的背景下，加密市场与传统宏观流动性之间的联动再度加深。

US September CPI climbed 3.7% YoY above expectations; Morgan Stanley beat equity trading estimates by $9.1B, BofA profit dropped 17% with a $1.2B charge, and ASML shares surged on chip equipment order recovery. Inflation stickiness and earnings divergence remain central.

路透社10月12日发布的深度分析显示，美国富裕家庭资产在过去一年继续膨胀，但中低收入家庭却承受着持续的物价冲击，K型分化趋势愈发明显。报道认为，这一结构性矛盾可能对即将到来的中期选举与美联储政策路径产生重要影响。

Yahoo Finance reported that, driven by the simultaneous rise in 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields, the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to its highest level in nearly three years, further raising the burden on purchasers and exerting sustained pressure on housing-market activity.

CNBC, The Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Finance reported that US stocks sold off broadly on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 500 points and the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to its highest level since 2008. The 30-year yield simultaneously hit a fresh 24-year high, pushing mortgage rates higher and amplifying market concerns over sticky inflation and fiscal deficits.

According to CNBC, after the Nasdaq hit a new record high, US stock futures rose broadly across Asian trading hours. Investor expectations for Fed rate cuts and continued bullish outlook on AI sector drove market sentiment higher.

The Washington Post reports the September nonfarm payrolls release shows the US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below market expectations and the weakest single-month print since 2021. Bond yields moved on the print, with markets now betting the Fed will accelerate rate cuts.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States has climbed to its highest level since 2023, pushing buyers toward adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that offer lower introductory rates but carry reset risk. The structural shift highlights how the housing affordability crisis is reshaping both household finances and the broader real estate cycle, while also constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy path.