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Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady as Powell-Warsh Transition Looms

goodinfo.net — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 17:00:00 +0800

📰 Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady as Powell-Warsh Transition Looms

The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its wait-and-see approach and leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on April 29. With the Iran conflict driving up oil prices and inflation concerns, alongside lingering uncertainty about the labor market, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.

Rather than the rate decision itself, attention may focus on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference — potentially his last as Fed chair. Market participants will scrutinize his language for clues about whether officials view inflation or labor market weakness as the greater threat.

Concerns about a slowing labor market and a low-hire environment drove the Fed to cut rates three times late last year. Those concerns haven’t fully dissipated but were somewhat alleviated by the Labor Department’s estimate that U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in March. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index — the department’s inflation measure — surged from 2.4% year-over-year in February to 3.3% in March.

New tariffs from the Trump administration, combined with higher oil prices and war-related supply chain disruptions, are expected to keep prices elevated in the near term. The critical question is whether these inflationary shocks will be temporary or persistent — a distinction that largely depends on the duration of the conflict.

“The ongoing uncertainty relating to the Strait of Hormuz reinforces the case for a Fed that remains on the sidelines — certainly for the upcoming meeting, and in all likelihood, for many months thereafter,” Sue Hill, head of government liquidity group at Federated Hermes, a global investment manager, told USA TODAY.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack — a voting member on the committee — have both suggested the Fed should pause in April.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the possibility of a stagflation outbreak driven by high oil prices before tariff inflation subsides “keeps him up at night.” However, he noted that Americans’ incomes and the 4.3% unemployment rate remain “strong,” agreeing with Powell that there is no “obvious” path for rates.

As of March 18, committee members’ median expectation for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 was 3.4%, implying one quarter-point rate cut, though it may not come until the second half of the year.

Source: USA Today - No Fed rate move expected as Powell-Warsh shift looms

Key GOP Senator Ends Block, Clearing Way for Warsh as Fed Chair

goodinfo.net — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 09:45:00 +0800

📰 Key GOP Senator Ends Block, Clearing Way for Warsh as Fed Chair

According to Politico, CNBC, and Bloomberg, North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced on April 26 that he will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, removing the final political obstacle to Trump’s nominee for the nation’s top banking position.

Tillis had been the primary holdout in the Senate against Warsh’s nomination. According to The New York Times, his change of position came after the US Justice Department dropped its criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This move is seen as a response to pressure from the Trump administration and simultaneously eliminated divisions within the Republican Party over Warsh’s confirmation.

CNBC reported that with Tillis ending his block, Warsh’s confirmation process is now set to advance in the Senate. As a former Fed governor and Wall Street veteran, Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy. Market participants widely believe that Warsh’s appointment could signal a shift in the Fed’s interest rate policy.

The Associated Press noted that the Justice Department’s decision to drop the probe into Powell was the key turning point in this political standoff. The investigation into Powell had previously raised concerns about the Fed’s independence, and that threat has now been removed.

Bloomberg analyzed that Warsh’s confirmation will have profound implications for US monetary policy. As a former Morgan Stanley director, Warsh has deep connections and extensive experience in the financial world, but his hawkish leanings on interest rate policy have also introduced uncertainty into markets.

The Senate is expected to complete the voting process on Warsh’s nomination in the coming weeks. If confirmed, Warsh would become one of the youngest Fed chairs in history and will play a pivotal role in shaping the direction of US economic and monetary policy.

Sources: Politico, CNBC, AP News, Bloomberg

Key GOP Senator Tillis Drops Blockade, Clearing Path for Warsh's Fed Chair Nomination

goodinfo.net — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 23:30:00 +0800

Key GOP Senator Tillis Drops Blockade, Clearing Path for Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination

WASHINGTON — North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced on Sunday that he will support President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, ending his previous hold on the nomination. The decision marks a critical turning point in what is expected to be a smooth confirmation process for Warsh.

Tillis’s Reversal

In a statement, Tillis said that after multiple in-depth conversations with Warsh, he was convinced that Warsh would “lead the Federal Reserve with independence and professionalism.” Tillis had been among the key Republicans in the Senate expressing reservations about the nomination, and his support all but ensures Warsh’s confirmation.

“I am prepared to move forward with the confirmation of Kevin Warsh,” Tillis said Sunday afternoon. “He has sufficiently articulated his monetary policy framework and his commitment to the Fed’s independence.”

Warsh’s Background and Policy Stance

Kevin Warsh, 53, previously served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, making him the only current nominee with prior Fed experience. After leaving the Fed, he became an investment banker at Morgan Stanley, accumulating extensive financial market expertise.

Warsh is viewed as a relatively hawkish monetary policymaker. He has repeatedly emphasized the importance of controlling inflation in public speeches and has criticized the Fed’s previous quantitative easing programs. Market observers widely believe that if confirmed, Warsh could steer monetary policy in a more restrictive direction.

Market Reaction

Following the announcement, US Treasury yields rose modestly, reflecting market expectations of tighter monetary policy. The US dollar also strengthened in after-hours trading.

Wall Street analysts generally believe Warsh’s confirmation would bring a more market-friendly policy orientation to the Fed. “Warsh combines insider knowledge of the Fed’s operations with Wall Street experience — he may be the most ideal Fed Chair candidate the Trump administration could find,” said a senior economist.

Confirmation Timeline

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold Warsh’s confirmation hearing next week. If all goes smoothly, a full Senate vote could take place in mid-May. With Republicans holding a narrow majority in the Senate, Warsh’s confirmation prospects are widely viewed as favorable.

The nomination carries symbolic significance for the Trump administration. Warsh would become the first new Fed Chair since Jerome Powell’s appointment in 2018, and his policy direction will profoundly influence the US economy for years to come.

Sources: CNBC / NBC News / CNN

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Markets Price 78% Probability of June Cut

goodinfo.net — Sat, 25 Apr 2026 14:00:00 +0800

📰 Full Story

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting.

Data Supporting the Cut

Employment: April non-farm payrolls added only 85,000 jobs, far below the expected 180,000
Inflation: Core PCE price index dropped to 0.1% month-over-month, the lowest since 2021
Manufacturing PMI: Contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating ongoing economic slowdown

Market Expectations

Federal funds rate futures show a 78% probability of a 25 basis point cut in June, up significantly from 52% at the start of the month.

Wall Street analysts broadly agree that the Fed will deliver clearer dovish signals at its next meeting.

Source: Bloomberg, CME FedWatch