May 1, 2026 | Sources: BBC News, Reuters

The CEO of Yara International, one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers, issued a stark warning on May 1 that the Iran conflict’s disruption to global fertilizer supplies could significantly reduce crop yields worldwide, driving up food prices and putting billions of meals at risk.

The Core Warning

Yara is one of the world’s largest nitrogen fertilizer producers. Its CEO stated in an interview that the Iran conflict has caused “severe disruption” to the global fertilizer supply chain. The company has significant fertilizer production and transportation facilities in and around Iran, and the war’s port blockades and shipping disruptions have directly impacted fertilizer production and exports.

“We are witnessing the brewing of a potential global food crisis,” the Yara CEO said. “Fertilizer is the foundational input for modern agricultural production. Without adequate fertilizer supplies, global yields of major food crops will drop significantly, and this will directly push up food prices.”

Fertilizer and Food Security

Fertilizers — particularly nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers — are the core pillars of the global food production system. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that fertilizers contribute more than 50% to global food production. A reduction in fertilizer supply will directly lead to crop yield declines.

Yara warned that the upcoming Northern Hemisphere spring planting season is facing a severe fertilizer shortfall. If fertilizer supplies cannot be restored in time, yields of major food crops such as wheat, corn, and rice could fall by 5%-15%.

“This means the world could face a shortfall of billions of additional meals,” Yara stated. “The most severely affected will be developing countries already facing food insecurity.”

Iran War’s Impact on Supply Chains

The Iran war has now lasted more than 60 days. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports has severely disrupted shipping in the Persian Gulf region. Iran is an important fertilizer producer and exporter globally, and its phosphate resources and fertilizer production capacity hold significant importance for the global market.

Additionally, the war has led to increased volatility in energy prices. Fertilizer production is heavily dependent on energy inputs such as natural gas, and rising energy costs have further pushed up fertilizer production costs. Global nitrogen fertilizer prices have already risen more than 30% in recent weeks.

Global Response

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has called on governments to take measures ensuring the畅通 of fertilizer supply chains. The FAO Director-General said: “Food security is at the core of global security. Any conflict that impacts fertilizer production and transportation can have cascading effects that ultimately affect the world’s most vulnerable populations.”

Multiple countries have begun emergency agricultural policy adjustments, including drawing on strategic fertilizer reserves, encouraging farmers to reduce fertilizer usage, and seeking alternative fertilizer sources. However, analysts warn that these measures cannot fill the massive supply shortfall in the short term.

Market Outlook

Analysts predict that if the Iran war continues, global fertilizer prices could continue to climb, driving significant increases in global food prices in the second half of 2026. For an already inflation-stressed global economy, this would add further strain.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters

On April 30, 2026, Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara — one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers — issued a stark warning to the BBC: the interruption to fertiliser and key ingredient supplies caused by the Iran conflict could result in up to 10 billion meals per week not being produced, with the poorest nations bearing the brunt of the impact.

Strait of Hormuz Blockade Triggers Chain Reaction

Holsether said that hostilities in the Gulf, which have blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are jeopardising global food production. Reduced crop yields due to lower fertiliser use could lead to a bidding war for food between nations.

“We’re up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now because of the situation we are in,” Holsether said. “What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers.”

He added that not applying nitrogen fertiliser would reduce crop yields for some crops by as much as 50% in the first season.

Fertiliser Prices Surge 80%

The price of fertiliser has soared by 80% since the beginning of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Holsether warned that a continuation of the conflict could result in a bidding war for food between richer and poorer nations.

“If there’s a bidding war on food and one that Europe is robust enough to handle, what we need to keep in mind in Europe is, okay, in that situation, who are we buying the food away from?” he said. “That is a situation where the most vulnerable people pay the highest price for this in developing nations where they cannot afford to follow that.”

Farmers Face Mounting Cost Pressures

Holsether noted that farmers around the world were facing a daunting series of challenges. “They’re faced with higher energy costs — diesel for a tractor is increasing, other inputs for the farmers are increasing, fertiliser cost is increasing, but yet the crop prices haven’t increased to the same extent yet.”

While the UK is very unlikely to face food shortages, the increased costs facing food producers are expected to start showing up on weekly food bills in the coming months. The Food and Drink Federation recently forecast that food inflation could reach 10% by the end of the year.

Call for Europe to Consider Impact on the Vulnerable

Holsether urged European nations to carefully consider the impact of a price war on the “most vulnerable” in other countries. “If there’s a bidding war on food, we need to remember — who are we buying the food away from? This has implications for food affordability, food scarcity and hunger.”

The warning provides the latest and most specific quantified assessment of the profound impact the escalating Iran conflict is having on global food security.

Source: BBC News - Fertiliser boss says Iran war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk