Brent crude futures broke through the $125 per barrel barrier on April 30, 2026, reaching their highest level since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Growing anxiety over the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the Trump administration’s rejection of Iran’s latest peace proposal, has pushed oil prices to wartime highs with no sign of de-escalation.

Oil Surge Fuels Global Inflation Fears

Brent crude climbed from $120 to above $125 per barrel within hours, a jump of over 4%. Analysts warned that prices could climb further if the blockade persists. Independent energy consultant Kpler projected that a prolonged Hormuz closure could push Brent toward $130 per barrel.

The oil price spike has directly inflated global inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve announced it would hold rates steady, but with four officials dissenting—the highest level of disagreement since 1992. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he would continue serving as a governor after his chairmanship ends, but the odds of a rate cut in 2026 have essentially vanished.

Global Stocks Decline Broadly

Driven by surging oil prices and uncertainty over the US-Iran standoff, major global equity indices fell broadly. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower, and European stock futures also slipped. US stock futures declined in tandem, interrupting the post-earnings rebound momentum for technology stocks.

Energy stocks were among the few bright spots. Oil majors including BP and ExxonMobil rose on higher oil price expectations, while aviation and logistics sectors—sensitive to energy costs—suffered significant losses.

US Military to Brief Trump on New Iran Options

In an exclusive report, Axios revealed that US military commanders will brief President Trump on new military options regarding Iran on Thursday. This move signals that Washington is seriously considering escalating military operations to break the Strait of Hormuz deadlock.

Meanwhile, the US is seeking to form a new coalition to restore shipping through the strait. A leaked diplomatic cable showed the State Department coordinating with multiple allies to ensure safe passage through joint naval forces.

Market Outlook

Wall Street analysts broadly agree that markets will remain highly volatile as long as geopolitical risks remain unquantifiable. Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2026 Brent crude baseline forecast to $115 per barrel, $15 higher than its previous estimate. Morgan Stanley warned that the energy price shock could deduct 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points from global GDP growth.

For investors, defensive sectors and energy stocks may continue to outperform in the current environment, while highly leveraged, high-valuation growth stocks face further adjustment pressure.

Source: AP News, The Guardian, Axios, Bloomberg