Macro Economy

According to CNBC, the latest inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflationary pressure eased last month, triggering bullish expectations on Wall Street regarding the pace of U.S. inflation decline. U.S. stock futures rose broadly pre-market, with Dow Jones futures gaining over 100 points, and the market is once again betting that the Federal Reserve may begin a rate-cutting cycle before year-end, lifting risk appetite across global capital markets.

Bloomberg reports that the US bond market is approaching a key threshold for sounding the recession alarm, with yield-curve inversion risk rising again. The signal comes against the backdrop of a still-intact AI-led bull market and elevated equity valuations, underscoring the underlying tension in the US macro-financial environment.

According to multiple financial outlets, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to a roughly 19-year high, prompting some long-term investors to view current levels as a potential buying opportunity for long-duration bond assets, with the market watching the Fed policy path and inflation expectations closely.

The global bond selloff deepened further with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields climbing to the highest level since 2004, while long-end government bonds across multiple countries came under simultaneous pressure, according to Reuters and other outlets. The move reflects markets repricing expectations on the inflation path, central bank policy, and fiscal outlook, with volatility across global capital markets rising notably.

Market expectations for the September FOMC meeting are highly aligned, with consensus that the Federal Reserve will launch its first rate hike since 2023 to address inflation pressure that has not fully receded and a still resilient job market. This decision will formally end a three-year rate-cutting cycle, marking a new tightening phase in the global monetary policy environment, with chain effects on global bond yields, dollar exchange rate trends, and emerging market capital flows. Against the backdrop of Fed policy pivot and synchronized global bond yield increases, refinancing costs and debt sustainability for major global borrowers in the second half of 2026 will enter a new period of stress testing.

Major global bond markets are once again facing significant selling pressure, with long-end government bond yields rising in tandem across multiple countries. International oil prices have remained elevated against the backdrop of Middle East geopolitical tensions, further intensifying investor concerns over a return of inflation. Against this backdrop, the monetary policy paths of major central banks face new uncertainty, and volatility across global capital markets has notably increased.

Bitcoin’s recent macro relief faces a challenge from rising Japanese interest rates. Japanese bond yields continue to climb, lifting U.S. Treasury yields and posing a potential headwind for risk assets. According to CoinDesk, rising Japanese bond yields are pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, creating potential pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. While Bitcoin has recently benefited from improved macro conditions, rising Japanese rates could offset some of these positives. ...