Core Summary

The Block, citing CryptoQuant data, reports that Bitcoin short-term holders’ on-chain unrealized profit margin has climbed to its highest level in 21 months. Market sentiment is approaching the “overheated profit” zone, and CryptoQuant analysts believe the probability of a near-term technical correction is rising significantly.

Event Details

According to The Block, the latest on-chain monitoring released by CryptoQuant shows that the unrealized profit margin for the short-term holder cohort has surged to its highest level in 21 months. The metric measures the paper gains of investors who entered the Bitcoin market over recent quarters; when it breaks above the upper band of its historical range, the market is generally considered to be in an “overheated profit” state, and the signal has historically led a number of intermediate-term tops.

CryptoQuant analysts note that on-chain data suggest overall profitability for current market participants has now approached the levels last seen around late 2024 to early 2025. With limited fresh marginal demand, near-term profit-taking pressure is elevated. Should macro liquidity shift or spot prices fail to push through, the realized selling of on-chain profitable positions could amplify any pullback.

The firm also emphasizes that the unrealized profit metric is a strong leading sentiment indicator rather than a precise timing tool. Fundamentals such as institutional flows, spot ETF demand and US regulatory developments could still provide counter-trend support over the short term. Investors referencing such on-chain warnings should combine macro liquidity, market positioning and derivatives structure rather than acting on a single indicator.

Editor: GoodInfo Global News Team