US Dollar

US wholesale inflation climbed to its highest level since 2022 in September, according to Labor Department data released on October 15, with the producer price index rising far more than markets expected. Treasury yields and the dollar jumped after the print, US equity futures fell, and bets on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates again this year split sharply. Sticky services inflation combined with energy price volatility has widened the divide inside the Fed over the path of disinflation, exposing global asset prices and cross-border capital flows to a fresh round of volatility.

The US national debt officially surpassed the $40 trillion milestone on August 20, equivalent to adding roughly $90,000 per second. Reuters notes this figure has more than doubled in a decade, spanning both Trump and Biden administrations. Analysts warn that surging debt will intensify interest payment pressures, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve into difficult choices between inflation control and fiscal sustainability.