US Treasuries

Key Facts The multi-month decline in China’s official US Treasury holdings may not represent active selling by Beijing, according to Fortune, the Globe and Mail and the South China Morning Post on October 18. Some of the holdings may have been relocated through custodial and intermediary accounts in Canada and Belgium, allowing exposure to Treasuries to be maintained while reducing the visibility of official holdings. Market participants note that Canada may, on a statistical basis, displace China as one of the top three holders of US government debt. If confirmed, the picture would materially shift the narrative around Treasury demand structure, the trajectory of US–China financial relations and the medium-term rebalancing of global foreign-exchange reserves. ...

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns China and Japan may reduce US Treasury holdings, sparking a new structural warning on dollar asset pricing.

Bloomberg market wrap shows that the US Treasury market has stabilised after a string of selloffs, while the major US equity benchmarks continue to come under pressure.

Bloomberg and CNBC report that the US Treasury selloff has intensified with the 10-year yield hitting multi-year highs. In parallel, the Trump administration has rejected Iran’s latest diplomatic overture, layering geopolitical risk on top of rate pressure and pushing US stocks lower at the open. Investor focus has broadened from rates alone to a multi-factor repricing of the fiscal outlook, inflation expectations and Middle East risk, driving a phase of asset allocation and risk-preference adjustment.

Bloomberg reports that the US bond market is approaching a key threshold for sounding the recession alarm, with yield-curve inversion risk rising again. The signal comes against the backdrop of a still-intact AI-led bull market and elevated equity valuations, underscoring the underlying tension in the US macro-financial environment.

According to multiple financial outlets, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to a roughly 19-year high, prompting some long-term investors to view current levels as a potential buying opportunity for long-duration bond assets, with the market watching the Fed policy path and inflation expectations closely.

The global bond selloff deepened further with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields climbing to the highest level since 2004, while long-end government bonds across multiple countries came under simultaneous pressure, according to Reuters and other outlets. The move reflects markets repricing expectations on the inflation path, central bank policy, and fiscal outlook, with volatility across global capital markets rising notably.

US West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have returned to the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since May. The oil price climb, combined with escalating Middle East tensions, has pushed global energy prices and US long-term Treasury yields higher in tandem, prompting markets to reassess inflation risks and the trajectory of monetary policy.

US Treasury market faces significant selling pressure, pushing yields higher and testing Washington’s tolerance for elevated borrowing costs.